The Leonid meteor shower, one of the most well-known annual celestial events, will reach its peak activity next week. While historically capable of producing spectacular “meteor storms,” this year’s display is expected to be relatively modest. North American observers should look to the skies on the morning of Tuesday, November 18, but should temper expectations.
Historical Context and Current Forecasts
The Leonids are famous for past displays, including intense storms in 1799, 1833, and 1966, when thousands of meteors per hour were observed. More recent, though less dramatic, peaks occurred in 1999, 2001, and 2002. However, the current outlook suggests a far less impressive show. Experts predict only around 5 to 10 meteors per hour for North America, with peak activity occurring before dawn on Tuesday.
The Science Behind the Show
The Leonids originate from debris left behind by periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle, which orbits the sun every 33⅓ years. As the comet travels, it sheds a trail of dust and rock. When Earth passes through this debris stream, the particles burn up in our atmosphere, creating the streaks of light we see as meteors. The shower gets its name from the constellation Leo, as the meteors appear to radiate from that area of the sky.
Why This Year Will Be Weak
The intensity of the Leonids varies greatly depending on how closely Earth intersects with the freshest, densest parts of the comet’s debris trail. Tempel-Tuttle last passed close to the sun in 1998, leading to stronger displays in the years immediately following. Now, as the comet moves further from the sun, the debris trail has spread out, resulting in lower meteor rates.
Where and When to Watch
For North American observers, the best time to look will be before dawn on Tuesday, November 18. The moon, in its narrow crescent phase, will not interfere with viewing. However, even under ideal conditions, meteors will likely appear only every 6 to 12 minutes.
For observers in central and eastern Asia, particularly Japan, the peak activity may be slightly stronger, with potential for up to 15 meteors per hour. A minor interaction with debris from 1699 could increase the number of bright meteors, though this is uncertain.
How to Observe
Watching a meteor shower requires minimal equipment. Simply find a dark location away from city lights, lie back, and scan the sky. Leo, the constellation from which the meteors appear to originate, will become fully visible after midnight, climbing higher in the sky towards dawn.
Leonid meteors enter the atmosphere at an exceptionally high speed—45 miles (72 km) per second—resulting in bright, long-lasting streaks. However, this year, such spectacular fireballs are unlikely to be frequent.
Looking Ahead
While 2025 is expected to be a weak year, the Leonids will gradually improve as Comet Tempel-Tuttle draws closer to the sun. The best displays of the next cycle are predicted for 2034 and 2035, with hourly rates potentially reaching hundreds of meteors.
For those eager to witness a more prolific meteor shower, the December Geminids, peaking on the nights of December 13-14, are expected to produce over 100 meteors per hour. This shower is widely considered the most reliable and impressive of the year
