This week isn’t just hot. It’s record-breaking. And wet. A deadly combo that’s going to kill thousands.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution network looked into it. They found a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific. People thought maybe that was the cause. It’s not. Blame global warming. Plain and simple.
The math of impossibility
The researchers ran the numbers for June 26–28 in western and central Europe. They asked a simple question: how likely would these temperatures be in 1976 or even 2003?
The answer? Basically never.
There’s a low-pressure dome trapping southern air. We’ve seen those before. The pattern is familiar. The temperature isn’t. Fifty years ago a typical June heat spike would have been 3.5°C lower. The heat we’re seeing right now is a once-in-10,00-years event. If that were ever.
France hit 44°C in one town. Spain couldn’t cool down at night staying above 30°C while everyone slept. Or tried to.
Theodord Keeping from Imperial College London put it bluntly. This wouldn’t have happened in June without climate change. Those nighttime temperatures? Impossible at any time of year. Without human-induced warming.
Humidity makes it worse
Heat is bad. Humidity is the kicker. British cities hit 50%+ humidity. Dew points in the low 20°C. Back in July 2022 when the UK set its temperature record? Single digits. Big difference.
The wet-bulb temperature measures how your body actually feels heat, sweat and all. Records are breaking across half of European cities. Or are about to.
Sweat doesn’t evaporate in thick air. You cook from the inside. Old people face the worst of it. So do chronic illness sufferers. Migrants. People on the streets. The vulnerable get vaporized first.
Friederike Otto notes the inequality is stark. Climate change doesn’t just add heat. It widens the gap. The people least likely to survive are the ones already on the edge.
Unready cities
We can’t count the dead yet. Too early. But in 2025 a smaller June heatwave killed 2,300 people across London and ten other cities.
This time will be worse. Especially for Northern and Central Europe.
We are the fastest warming continent. Our cities aren’t ready. They’re old. Built for cold weather. The population is aging and trapped in concrete boxes. In the UK only 5% of homes have AC. Five percent.
We need a better plan
Throwing more AC at this won’t save us. Not alone anyway. Europe needs passive cooling. Better insulation. Ventilation. Green roofs. Walls that breathe. Trees along the streets.
Carolina Pereira Marghidan from the Red Cross warns about blind spots in the safety nets. Current plans miss people with mental health issues. Pregnant women. Those who need specific help.
“We have heat action plans.” She’s right. But research shows they don’t cover everyone who is vulnerable. There are holes in the map. And people are falling through.
Cut fossil fuel emissions now. That’s the only way to stop these heatwaves from getting stronger. Until then Europe bakes in cities that were designed for another age. We’re running out of time to fix them. And the heat doesn’t care if you’re tired.
